ClimaTRACKS: creating more climate resilient rail networks & reliable journeys

Introduction

Weather conditions have a dramatic impact on rail services. For example, in July 2022 1, temperatures soared in excess of 40°C, resulting in blanket speed restrictions across much of the rail network in England and Wales. In August 2020, a passenger train in Scotland was derailed by a culmination of factors including a landslide caused by heavy rain and incorrect installation of a drainage system, sadly resulting in loss of life. As of this year (2025),2eight of the Rail Accident Investigation Branch safety recommendations relating to that incident remain unresolved.

The impact of climate change on railways is becoming more severe, with new weather extremes now more prevalent.

The UK’s complex and, in many, places saturated rail system means that a rail line out of service in one area can quickly have a knock-on effect across an entire region or even further afield, creating delays, cancellations and lack of trust in the rail network.

The ClimaTRACKS team brings together expertise from research in climate resilience, rail networks, reliability & availability of assets, and uncertainty quantification and propagation. Their work culminates in a revolutionary forecasting and resilience tool for rail operators.

1 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/15/rail-passengers-urged-to-avoid-train-travel-in-extreme-uk-heatwave
2 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c307lpv2j6po

What would you identify as the main impact of this work?

ClimaTRACKS is the first project to develop a working model that demonstrates how weather-related disruptions propagate across a railway network, using a novel methodology.

The research is timely, given the increasing frequency of extreme weather events and growing interest from rail operators globally to move towards digitalising decision-making processes.

Dr Giuliano Punzo, lecturer and director at the Sheffield Urban Flows Observatory, University of Sheffield, explains:

“Ultimately our model will help improve operational efficiency and reliability of freight and passenger rail services. Operators will be able to minimise losses faced by disruptions, and passengers will gain more accurate travel data so that they can better prepare their journeys and gain enhanced trust in rail journeys. This will encourage more passengers to travel by train, a more sustainable method of transport than other choices, and more freight to move by train.”

Key challenges that ClimaTRACKS aims to solve

Modelling network failures caused by weather conditions is a key challenge for rail operators. The weather can impact many aspects of operation, from impact on ‘assets’ such as tracks and bridges, to the track’s environment such as coastal degradation, high waves, falling trees, or the infamous ‘leaves on the line’.

“The fast-moving nature of day-to-day operation of a railway system means that to be useful to rail operators, our model must walk a narrow path between a desk-based modelling study and what service changes it’s possible to deliver in real-life,” adds Dr Giuliano Punzo.

What was the key aim of the project?

Dr Ji-Eun Byun, Lecturer in Smart Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure at the University of Glasgow, says, “Our ultimate goal with ClimaTRACKS is for our software to appear on the Network Rail operator’s dashboard. When poor weather is predicted, the software will allow operators to identify where to put services on hold, the impact across the network, and how best to reallocate resources in response to the weather.

“Ideally, weather forecasts will be continuously updated until the very moment the disruption happens – integrated into the core operation of the network.”